Franz Wagner Points - Player Prop Bet 3/11/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Franz Wagner

F · Orlando Magic

Points

Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat · Mar 11, 2023

Updated Mar 11, 2023 6:34 PM EST

Analysis

Franz Wagner Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Franz Wagner has sunk 5.7 baskets per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 78th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Franz Wagner has played 30.0 minutes per game at home this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA.
The matchup against the Heat is a favorable one for 3-point attempts; the other team's starting SFs have averaged the 29th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (5.7).
The Orlando Magic have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games.
While playing on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should reduce opportunities for the Magic.
The Orlando Magic have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Miami is a tough one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a mere 2.9 free throws per game this year when the Heat are the visiting team (6th-least in the league).