Franz Wagner Points - Player Prop Bet 1/23/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Franz Wagner

F · Orlando Magic

Points

Orlando Magic vs Boston Celtics · Jan 23, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Franz Wagner Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Franz Wagner has converted 3.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's made from three over the course of the year.
Franz Wagner has successfully made 5.6 free throws per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.1 more than he's put through the net overall this season when playing at home.
Franz Wagner has averaged 32.7 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 87th percentile.
The Orlando Magic have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court.
As a team, the Orlando Magic have been great at getting to the foul line playing at home: 6th-best in the NBA this year, tallying 26.2 free throw attempts per game.

Favors Under

Franz Wagner has averaged 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, 0.1 more than he's averaged in all games this year at home.
The matchup against the Celtics is a hard one for scoring; opposing squads have averaged the 7th-least buckets per game in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing on the road (44.0).
The Orlando Magic rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (which will also lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The Magic have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Celtics.
The matchup against the Celtics is a challenging one for attempts from beyond the arc; the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the 10th-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (4.2).