Evan Mobley Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Evan Mobley

C · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks · Mar 3, 2024

Updated Mar 3, 2024 6:52 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Mobley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Evan Mobley has converted 57.5% of his field goals while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Evan Mobley has averaged 31.0 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 81st percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
This year when they are playing at home, the other team's starting PFs have shot 47.7% on 3-pointers (29th-best in the NBA) vs. the New York Knicks, identifying this as a positive matchup.
The Cavaliers check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on the road, the New York Knicks have given up the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Evan Mobley lands in the 23rd percentile for shot attempts from downtown, compiling 0.9 per game this year.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the 4th-slowest tempo in the league over the last 5 games as the home team.
The New York Knicks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
As a team, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been lousy at drawing fouls on their home court: 3rd-worst in the NBA this year with just 19.9 free throws per game.
Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 4.1 free throws per game (8th-fewest in the league) against the Knicks, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.