Duncan Robinson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/8/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Duncan Robinson

F · Miami Heat

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat · Mar 8, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 8:11 PM EST

Analysis

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Duncan Robinson has successfully made 3.6 threes per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 higher than he's converted from downtown over the course of the year.
Duncan Robinson has tallied 34.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.8 higher than he's tallied in all games this year.
In terms of three-pointers, the Heat's outstanding 41.4% rate of drained threes when playing away from home comes in as the 3rd-highest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
This year, opposing starting SGs have shot 44.1% on threes (29th-best in the NBA) against the Thunder, marking this as a favorable matchup.
The Thunder have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Heat.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Duncan Robinson registers in the 82nd percentile for personal fouls, registering a colossal 2.4 fouls per game without the home court advantage this year.
The least up-tempo pace road offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 20 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.9 free throws per game (30th-fewest in the NBA) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.
Duncan Robinson will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city usually lowers player production in all facets of the game.