Duncan Robinson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/23/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Duncan Robinson

F · Miami Heat

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat · Feb 23, 2024

Updated Feb 24, 2024 12:32 AM EST

Analysis

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-136/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -134 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last season's 4.7 rate, Duncan Robinson's shots from behind the three-point arc have risen this season to 6.8 per game.
The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.
This year, opposing starting SGs have totaled 6.1 three attempts per game (27th-most in the NBA) vs. the Pelicans, marking this as a positive matchup.
The Miami Heat are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from competing against the 5th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).
Duncan Robinson has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.9% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Duncan Robinson rates in the 77th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a monstrous 2.3 fouls per game while on the road this year.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing away from home.
Offensive rebounds save possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 4thworst in in the league as the away team with only 9.4 offensive boards per game this year.
Playing at home, the New Orleans Pelicans have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are on the road, opposing starting SGs have attempted 1.0 foul shots per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) against the New Orleans Pelicans, struggling to get to the charity stripe.