Duncan Robinson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/18/2023

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Duncan Robinson

NBA · Player Props

Duncan Robinson

F · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 18, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 12:45 AM EST

Analysis

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Duncan Robinson has converted 3.1 3-point shots per game at home this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among all players in the NBA.
The Heat rank as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.
This year when they are on their home court, opposing teams have come down with 9.3 offensive boards per game (5th-fewest in the NBA) against the Timberwolves (reducing possessions that could otherwise spark more opportunities for offense).
Over the last 10 games, opposing clubs have attempted 20.2 foul shots per game (4th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, facing an uphill battle to get to the charity stripe.
Duncan Robinson will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city generally raises player production for all stats.

Favors Under

The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games.
The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, which should lead to fewer plays for the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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