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Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson Points
Player Prop - 4/22/2023

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Heat rank as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from beyond the arc.

This matchup is a difficult one for 3-pointers; when the Bucks are away from home, the other team have averaged the least three-point shots per game in the NBA against them this year (11.3).

The Bucks have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games while traveling, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Heat.

Duncan Robinson has sunk an impressive 93.3% of his foul shot attempts this season, significantly more than his 82.4 mark last season.

This matchup is a hard one for getting to the free throw line; the other team have attempted a mere 21.3 foul shots per game when the Bucks are the visiting team this year (2nd-least in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Duncan Robinson has sunk just 2.1 buckets per game this season, significantly lower than his 3.4 rate last season.

The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year.

The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

While on the road, the Bucks have allowed the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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