Duncan Robinson Points - Player Prop Bet 4/22/2023

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Duncan Robinson

NBA · Player Props

Duncan Robinson

F · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 22, 2023

Updated Apr 22, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Heat rank as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from beyond the arc.
This matchup is a difficult one for 3-pointers; when the Bucks are away from home, the other team have averaged the least three-point shots per game in the NBA against them this year (11.3).
The Bucks have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games while traveling, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Heat.
Duncan Robinson has sunk an impressive 93.3% of his foul shot attempts this season, significantly more than his 82.4 mark last season.
This matchup is a hard one for getting to the free throw line; the other team have attempted a mere 21.3 foul shots per game when the Bucks are the visiting team this year (2nd-least in the league).

Favors Under

Duncan Robinson has sunk just 2.1 buckets per game this season, significantly lower than his 3.4 rate last season.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year.
The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on the road, the Bucks have allowed the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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