Duncan Robinson Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 12/8/2023

NBA · Player Props

Duncan Robinson

F · Miami Heat

Made 3 Point Shots

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Dec 8, 2023

Updated Dec 9, 2023 12:54 AM EST

Analysis

Duncan Robinson Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Duncan Robinson has successfully made an impressive 3.1 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 1.7 rate last year.
Duncan Robinson has played a whopping 29.2 minutes per game this year, significantly more than his 16.6 minutes per game last year.
With respect to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Heat's remarkable 40.9% rate of converted threes when playing on the road rates 2nd-highest in the NBA this year.
The Heat have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games playing at home.
Duncan Robinson is expected to see a spike in output across the board as a result of holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Duncan Robinson measures in the 78th percentile for personal fouls, registering a colossal 2.5 fouls per game this year.
The matchup against Cleveland is a challenging one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Cleveland Cavaliers are on the road, the opposition's starting SGs have tallied the 15th-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.5).
The Miami Heat will likely experience a decrease in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 9th-most lethargic pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Cavaliers).
The Miami Heat check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are the visiting team, their opposition has collected 11.5 offensive boards per game (10th-highest in the league) against the Cavaliers (saving possessions that can generate more opportunities for offense).