Draymond Green Points - Player Prop Bet 1/30/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Draymond Green

F · Golden State Warriors

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Philadelphia 76ers · Jan 30, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 10:52 PM EST

Analysis

Draymond Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Draymond Green has tallied 32.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 6.2 higher than he's tallied over the course of the season at home.
The matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers is a hard one for three-pointers; opposing squads have compiled the lowest 3-point rate in the league over the last 25 games (32.5%).
The faceoff with Joel Embiid ranks in only the 100th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs making a whopping 0.9 3-pointers per game this year.
The Golden State Warriors have played at the 6th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Golden State Warriors have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Draymond Green has accumulated 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (97th percentile).
The Warriors have been the 5th-least efficient shooting team in the league while playing at home this year.
The Warriors are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from squaring off against the 8th-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Philadelphia 76ers).
Over the last 15 games, the other team has brought down 13.5 offensive rebounds per game (most in the league) against the 76ers (retaining possessions that can create extra opportunities for offense).
The clash with Joel Embiid in terms of getting to the charity stripe lands in the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the opposing team's starting Cs attempting just 1.8 foul shots per game this year when they are playing at home.