Donovan Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 11/8/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors · Nov 8, 2024

Updated Nov 8, 2024 6:05 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Donovan Mitchell registers in the 95th percentile for shots from the field while on his home court, logging 17.8 per game this year.
The Cavaliers check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The 5th-speediest pace home team in the NBA this year has been the Cavaliers.
The Warriors have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games away from their home city, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Cavaliers.
The matchup against Golden State is a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a colossal 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Golden State Warriors are the visiting team (5th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Donovan Mitchell has played just 30.2 minutes per game this year, significantly less than his 35.8 minutes per game last year.
This year when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SGs have shot 21.6% on threes (weakest in the NBA) against the Warriors, designating this as a hard matchup.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Cleveland Cavaliers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.1 offensive boards per game this year.
Donovan Mitchell has converted just 2.9 foul shots per game this season, quite a bit less than his 5.1 rate last season.