Donovan Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks · Feb 27, 2024

Updated Feb 27, 2024 9:28 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Donovan Mitchell comes in at the 99th percentile, tallying a massive 28.1 points per game this year.
Donovan Mitchell has attempted 9.3 treys per game on his home court this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among all players in the league.
Donovan Mitchell has played 35.3 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled 6.1 3-point attempts per game (26th-most in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, identifying this as a strong matchup.
The matchup with Kyrie Irving rates in just the 93rd percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting SGs draining a whopping 51.8% of their shot attempts from the field this year when they are at home.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the 4th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court.
This year, opposing clubs have brought down 11.4 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Dallas Mavericks (maintaining possessions that can produce further chances for offense).
With respect to drawing fouls, the Cleveland Cavaliers's feeble 20.0 free throw attempts per game while on their home court rates 3rd-worst in the NBA this year.
Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (8th-fewest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, making it tough to get to the foul line.