Donovan Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 12/8/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Dec 8, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 7:47 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Donovan Mitchell has successfully made a terrific 3.5 3-point shots per game this season, quite a bit more than his 3.4 mark last season.
Among all players in the league, Donovan Mitchell rates in the 97th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 35.1 minutes per game while at home this year.
In terms of scoring, the Cleveland Cavaliers's outstanding 48.9% field goal percentage away from home settles in as the 3rd-strongest in the league this year.
The matchup vs. Miami is a positive one; when the Miami Heat are at home, they have allowed the 25th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting SGs this year (18.6).
The Miami Heat have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games at home, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 2.6 rate, Donovan Mitchell's personal fouls per game have spiked this year to 2.4.
The Cavaliers have played at the 9th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 5 games.
The Cavaliers check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Donovan Mitchell will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces player performance for all stats.