Donovan Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 11/5/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors · Nov 5, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 6:14 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Donovan Mitchell has notched 28.2 points per game with the home court advantage since the start of last season, ranking in the 98th percentile -- among the league leaders by this standard.
Donovan Mitchell has attempted 9.3 shots from downtown per game at home since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile out of all players in the league.
Among all players in the NBA, Donovan Mitchell lands in the 96th percentile for playing time, putting up a colossal 35.2 minutes per game while on his home court since the start of last season.
With respect to shooting, the Cleveland Cavaliers's remarkable 48.4% field goal rate places 7th-strongest in the league since the start of last season.
Donovan Mitchell has attempted 5.4 foul shots per game while on the road since the start of last season, ranking him in the 90th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Favors Under

The matchup against Golden State is a hard one for threes; when the Golden State Warriors have the home court advantage, opposing starting SGs have tallied the 15th-least threes per game in the NBA since the start of last season (1.7).
The Warriors have played at the 10th-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should decrease plays for the Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers have been the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league playing at home since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Away from home, the Warriors have allowed the 10th-most offensive boards per game (10.9) in the league to opposing clubs since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).