Donovan Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 3/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Mar 28, 2023

Updated Mar 28, 2023 7:41 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Donovan Mitchell has averaged 27.4 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the league by this metric: 98th percentile.
Donovan Mitchell has attempted 9.3 3-pointers per game this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among all players in the league.
Donovan Mitchell has been on the court for 35.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 96th percentile.
The Hawks have played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games in their home stadium, which ought to increase possessions for the Cavaliers.
The Cleveland Cavaliers rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Donovan Mitchell has tallied 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league (81st percentile).
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup against the Hawks is a difficult one for 3-pointers; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the 13th-least three-point shots per game in the league this year (1.9).
The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year.
The matchup against Atlanta may be a tough one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting SGs have attempted a mere 2.1 free throws per game over the last 20 games when the Hawks are at home (13th-least in the league).