Donovan Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 3/10/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Mar 10, 2023

Updated Mar 10, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Donovan Mitchell has attempted 20.7 shots from the field per game when playing away from home this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Donovan Mitchell has tallied 33.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 92nd percentile.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a favorable one; they have given up the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SGs this year (17.5).
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Donovan Mitchell has accumulated 2.5 personal fouls per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 82nd percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The Cleveland Cavaliers check in as the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games while on the road.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which should lead to fewer plays for the Cavaliers.
Donovan Mitchell will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens player production in all facets of the game.