Donovan Mitchell Assists - Player Prop Bet 12/8/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Assists

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Dec 8, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 7:58 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +114 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Donovan Mitchell has totaled 5.3 assists per game on the road this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile -- one of the best in the NBA by this metric.
Among all players in the league, Donovan Mitchell rates in the 97th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 35.1 minutes per game while at home this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games at home, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
This year when they are away from home, opposing teams have nabbed 9.2 offensive boards per game (3rd-lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (losing possessions that could otherwise spark extra opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 2.6 rate, Donovan Mitchell's personal fouls per game have spiked this year to 2.4.
The Cavaliers have played at the 9th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 5 games.
The Cavaliers check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Donovan Mitchell will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces player performance for all stats.