Dillon Brooks Points - Player Prop Bet 12/15/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Dillon Brooks

G-F · Houston Rockets

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets · Dec 15, 2023

Updated Dec 15, 2023 9:05 PM EST

Analysis

Dillon Brooks Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dillon Brooks has made a whopping 5.6 field goals per game this year, quite a bit more than his 5.3 rate last year.
In contrast to last year's 1.9 mark, Dillon Brooks's 3-point shots converted have increased this year to 2.3 per game.
Out of all players in the league, Dillon Brooks slots into the 79th percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 30.5 minutes per game while playing away from home this year.
Since the start of last season, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 5.8 three attempts per game (30th-most in the NBA) vs. the Grizzlies, creating a good matchup.
The Houston Rockets have played at the 10th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team.

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 3.3 rate, Dillon Brooks's personal fouls per game have risen this year to 4.1.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Houston Rockets.
The Houston Rockets have been the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are on the road, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 2.4 free throws per game (6th-lowest in the league) vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, making it tough to draw fouls.
Dillon Brooks will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city tends to worsen stat production in all stat categories.