Dillon Brooks Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Dillon Brooks

G-F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Clippers · Mar 31, 2023

Updated Apr 1, 2023 12:17 AM EST

Analysis

Dillon Brooks Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dillon Brooks has averaged 29.1 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 76th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
The matchup against Los Angeles is a favorable one; when the Clippers are on the road, they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SFs this year (17.2).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Clippers may be a favorable one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted an enormous 3.8 free throws per game over the last 25 games (26th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Dillon Brooks has attempted a lowly 13.6 shots per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 16.2 rate last year.
Dillon Brooks has been called for 3.3 personal fouls per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 97th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The Clippers have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to decrease plays for the Grizzlies.
The Clippers have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.1) in the league to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Dillon Brooks has made a lowly 1.6 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 2.5 mark last year.