Dillon Brooks Points - Player Prop Bet 3/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Dillon Brooks

G-F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Orlando Magic · Mar 28, 2023

Updated Mar 28, 2023 4:37 PM EST

Analysis

Dillon Brooks Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dillon Brooks has averaged 29.0 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 76th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The matchup against the Magic is a strong one for 3-point attempts; opposing starting SFs have totaled the 28th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (5.6).
The Magic have played at the 5th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should increase plays for the Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Magic may be a strong one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a colossal 4.5 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (28th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Dillon Brooks has attempted just 13.4 shots from the field per game this season, significantly less than his 16.2 mark last season.
Dillon Brooks has averaged 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the league (98th percentile).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 9th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.
The Magic have allowed the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.8) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
Dillon Brooks has sunk a measly 1.6 foul shots per game this season, significantly less than his 2.5 mark last season.