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Dereck Lively II

Dereck Lively II Points
Player Prop - 12/16/2023

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks

Dereck Lively II Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Dereck Lively II has converted 5.8 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's sunk overall this season.

The Mavericks check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.

This year when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting Cs have shot 66.9% on shot attempts from the field (30th-highest in the league) against the Trail Blazers, labeling this as a favorable matchup.

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 5th-speediest pace-of-play in the league without the home court advantage this year.

This year when they are away from home, the other team has captured 10.1 offensive rebounds per game (6th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers (losing possessions that could otherwise generate extra opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Dereck Lively II has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the league (95th percentile).

The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA in their home stadium this year, which should decrease opportunities for the Mavericks.

The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Over the last 5 games, opposing starting Cs have attempted 0.4 foul shots per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Trail Blazers, struggling to get to the free-throw line.

Dereck Lively II will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court tends to lower stat production in all facets of the game.

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