Deni Avdija Points - Player Prop Bet 1/20/2024

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Deni Avdija

NBA · Player Props

Deni Avdija

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Washington Wizards vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 20, 2024

Updated Jan 21, 2024 3:22 AM UTC

Analysis

Deni Avdija Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-132/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Deni Avdija has successfully made 52.0% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games at home, 10.2% higher than he's converted from three over the course of the season while at home.
When it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 5th-most aggressive team in the NBA at home over the last 5 games has been the Washington Wizards.
The Wizards have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the league this year.
The Washington Wizards are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-quickest pace offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Spurs).
This year when they are playing at home, opposing squads have grabbed 10.4 offensive boards per game (10th-lowest in the league) vs. the Spurs (minimizing possessions that could otherwise produce more opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Deni Avdija has committed 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 higher than he's committed in all games this season.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SFs have logged 8.6 points per game (15th-fewest in the league) against the San Antonio Spurs, marking this as a difficult matchup for offensive performance.
The Washington Wizards check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting SFs vs. Julian Champagnie has been very low this year (2.1 foul shot attempts per game when they are on their home court: 21st percentile).

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