DeMar DeRozan Points - Player Prop Bet 12/14/2023

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DeMar DeRozan

NBA · Player Props

DeMar DeRozan

G-F · Chicago Bulls

Points

Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls · Dec 14, 2023

Updated Dec 15, 2023 12:59 AM EST

Analysis

DeMar DeRozan Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

DeMar DeRozan has played 34.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 94th percentile.
This year, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 5.5 three attempts per game (28th-highest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, designating this as a favorable matchup.
The Bulls will likely see a spike in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 9th-most up-tempo pace visiting offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Heat).
The Chicago Bulls rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
The Miami Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.0) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

DeMar DeRozan has made a lowly 40.4% of his shot attempts from the field this year, significantly less than his 50.7 rate last year.
In comparison to last season's 22.5% rate, DeMar DeRozan's 3-point efficiency has been reduced this season to 12.1%.
DeMar DeRozan has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's been called for overall this year.
The Chicago Bulls have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
This year when they are playing at home, the other team has averaged 38.3% on 3-pointers (4th-best in the NBA) vs. the Heat, making this a positive matchup.

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