DeMar DeRozan Points - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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DeMar DeRozan

NBA · Player Props

DeMar DeRozan

G-F · Chicago Bulls

Points

Boston Celtics vs Chicago Bulls · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 12:37 AM EST

Analysis

DeMar DeRozan Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

DeMar DeRozan has made a whopping 32.8% of his attempts from beyond the arc this year, a sizeable increase from his 23.5 rate last year.
Among all players in the NBA, DeMar DeRozan ranks in the 93rd percentile for playing time, registering a whopping 34.6 minutes per game while on his home court this year.
The matchup vs. Boston is a good one for 3-point attempts; when the Celtics are on their home court, the other team's starting SFs have averaged the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3).
When playing on the road, the Celtics have allowed the 8th-least offensive rebounds per game (10.1) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

In contrast to last season's 8.9 clip, DeMar DeRozan's shots made have been reduced this season to 7.5 per game.
In comparison to last season's 2.6 mark, DeMar DeRozan's personal fouls per game have surged this season to 2.9.
The most lethargic tempo home team in the NBA this year has been the Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 4th-least up-tempo pace home team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Celtics).
Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Bulls grade out 9thworst in in the NBA away from their home court with only 9.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

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