DeMar DeRozan Points - Player Prop Bet 11/17/2023

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DeMar DeRozan

NBA · Player Props

DeMar DeRozan

G-F · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Orlando Magic · Nov 17, 2023

Updated Nov 18, 2023 2:24 AM EST

Analysis

DeMar DeRozan Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

DeMar DeRozan has registered a whopping 24.8 points per game this year, a big improvement over his 24.1 points per game last year.
Out of all players in the league, DeMar DeRozan slots into the 91st percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 34.2 minutes per game when playing on the road this year.
The Magic have given up the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.3) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are the visiting team, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 4.4 foul shots per game (22nd-highest in the league) against the Magic, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.
DeMar DeRozan stands to get a boost in output in all stat categories due to enjoying the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

DeMar DeRozan has successfully made a lowly 43.5% of his shot attempts from the field this year, quite a bit lower than his 49.9 rate last year.
The matchup vs. Orlando is a difficult one for field goals; when the Orlando Magic are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have tallied the 14th-least shots made from the field per game in the NBA since the start of last season (4.9).
The 3rd-most sluggish pace home team in the NBA this year has been the Chicago Bulls.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Chicago Bulls rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.9 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.

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