DeMar DeRozan Assists - Player Prop Bet 11/24/2023

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DeMar DeRozan

NBA · Player Props

DeMar DeRozan

G-F · Chicago Bulls

Assists

Toronto Raptors vs Chicago Bulls · Nov 24, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

DeMar DeRozan Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

DeMar DeRozan has compiled 4.5 assists per game on his home court this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile -- near the top of the league by this standard.
DeMar DeRozan has averaged 33.7 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 89th percentile.
The Chicago Bulls are expected to see an increase in possessions in this contest from competing against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Toronto Raptors).
Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, and the Bulls grade out 8thbest in in the league with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.
This year when they are at home, the other team has collected 9.8 offensive boards per game (6th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Raptors (losing possessions that could otherwise result in additional opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

DeMar DeRozan has been called for 3.0 personal fouls per game this season, significantly more than his 2.6 fouls per game last season.
The Chicago Bulls have played at the most sluggish tempo in the NBA while playing at home this year.
DeMar DeRozan should suffer a reduction in output for all stats considering being on the road in this game.

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