Deandre Ayton Points - Player Prop Bet 2/25/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Deandre Ayton

C · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Charlotte Hornets · Feb 25, 2024

Updated Feb 26, 2024 3:33 AM EST

Analysis

Deandre Ayton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Deandre Ayton has sunk 9.0 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 2.5 more than he's sunk overall this year.
Deandre Ayton has averaged 31.7 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The number of baskets converted against Nick Richards has been very high (6.7 per game) when guarding fellow starting Cs this year (97th percentile).
The Portland Trail Blazers have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 15 games when they are playing at home, the other team has nabbed 8.3 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Hornets (turning over possessions that could otherwise lead to bonus chances for offense).

Favors Under

Deandre Ayton has committed 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA (79th percentile).
In terms of scoring, the Trail Blazers's subpar 103.6 points per game as the home team rates fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team has totaled 15.1 threes per game (highest in the NBA) against the Hornets, making this a good matchup.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Trail Blazers are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from squaring off against the 9th-least up-tempo pace road team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Charlotte Hornets).