Deandre Ayton Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Deandre Ayton

C · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs · Apr 4, 2023

Updated Apr 4, 2023 10:03 PM EST

Analysis

Deandre Ayton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against the Spurs is a favorable one for threes; opposing starting Cs have compiled the 30th-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (42.1%).
The Spurs have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to more opportunities for the Suns.
The Phoenix Suns check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Deandre Ayton has made 81.7% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games, 8.1% higher than he's converted overall this season.
The matchup against San Antonio may be a strong one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a massive 4.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Spurs are on the road (24th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Deandre Ayton has made just 58.7% of his field goal attempts this year, significantly lower than his 64.4 rate last year.
Deandre Ayton has averaged 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.9 more than he's averaged overall this season at home.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Spurs have allowed the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the league to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls: 3rd-worst in the league this year, tallying a lowly 21.7 free throws per game.