Deandre Ayton Points - Player Prop Bet 3/14/2023

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Deandre Ayton

NBA · Player Props

Deandre Ayton

C · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks · Mar 14, 2023

Updated Mar 15, 2023 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Deandre Ayton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Deandre Ayton has converted 62.5% of his treys over the last 15 games, 21.3% more than he's made from beyond the arc in all games this season.
The matchup against the Bucks is a favorable one for attempts from downtown; opposing starting Cs have totaled the 29th-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (2.0).
The Bucks have played at the 6th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games without the home court advantage, which should boost plays for the Suns.
The Phoenix Suns have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Bucks have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (7.7) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Deandre Ayton has been called for 3.1 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games playing at home, 0.9 more than he's been called for over the course of the year at home.
The Phoenix Suns check in as the least aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to three-point attempts.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The matchup against Milwaukee is a tough one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a mere 2.2 foul shots per game this year when the Bucks are away from home (15th-least in the league).

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