Deandre Ayton Points - Player Prop Bet 2/24/2023

NBA · Player Props

Deandre Ayton

C · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Feb 24, 2023

Updated Feb 25, 2023 3:07 AM EST

Analysis

Deandre Ayton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Deandre Ayton has sunk 62.5% of his shots from downtown over the last 15 games, 21.3% higher than he's converted from 3-point range overall this year.
The Thunder have played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to more opportunities for the Suns.
The Phoenix Suns check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Deandre Ayton has sunk 82.7% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games at home, 7.9% more than he's put through the net in all games this season while at home.
The matchup against Oklahoma may be a strong one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting Cs have attempted a whopping 3.7 free throws per game over the last 23 games when the Thunder are away from home (22nd-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Deandre Ayton has been called for 3.1 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games while playing at home, 0.9 higher than he's been called for overall this season at home.
The matchup against the Thunder is a challenging one; they have allowed the 14th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting Cs this year (11.3).
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.
Away from their home court, the Thunder have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (12.7) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the foul line: 4th-worst in the NBA this year, tallying a mere 21.5 free throw attempts per game.