Deandre Ayton Points - Player Prop Bet 1/6/2023

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Deandre Ayton

NBA · Player Props

Deandre Ayton

C · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat · Jan 6, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Deandre Ayton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Deandre Ayton has converted 62.9% of his field goal attempts at home this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among all players [IN_THE_LEAGUE].
Deandre Ayton has converted 50.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 15 games, 18.4% higher than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the season.
Deandre Ayton has attempted 3.3 foul shots per game while at home this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among all players in the league.
The Phoenix Suns have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (which can also create additional chances for scoring and assists).
While on the road, the Heat have allowed the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (which also produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Deandre Ayton has tallied 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-whistled players in the league (89th percentile).
The matchup vs. the Heat is a challenging one for 3-pointers; opposing squads have put up the 4th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (36.9%).
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace in the NBA at home this year.
The Suns have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA on the road this year, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat.
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been lousy at drawing fouls on their home court: 9th-worst in the league this year, averaging a mere 23.4 free throw attempts per game.

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