Dario Saric Points - Player Prop Bet 12/12/2023

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Dario Saric

NBA · Player Props

Dario Saric

F-C · Golden State Warriors

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors · Dec 12, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 10:11 PM EST

Analysis

Dario Saric Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-124/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 6.0 clip, Dario Saric's points per game have regressed this season to 8.6.
Relative to last season's 0.7 mark, Dario Saric's 3-point shots sunk have declined this season to 1.4 per game.
This year, their opposition has totaled 32.5 three attempts per game (5th-fewest in the league) against the Suns, marking this as a hard matchup.
The 5th-speediest pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Warriors.
Offensive rebounds save possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Golden State Warriors grade out 5thbest in in the league with 13.1 offensive boards per game this year.

Favors Under

The Warriors rank as the 6th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA this year.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league over the last 10 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Warriors.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have secured 12.1 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the NBA) vs. the Phoenix Suns (preserving possessions that can generate additional opportunities for offense).
This matchup may be a good one for getting to the free-throw line; when the Suns are at home, their opposition has attempted an enormous 24.0 free throws per game over the last 8 games (9th-most in the NBA).
Dario Saric ought to suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories considering playing on the visting team in this game.

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