Dario Saric Points - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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Dario Saric

NBA · Player Props

Dario Saric

F-C · Golden State Warriors

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 9:47 PM EST

Analysis

Dario Saric Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dario Saric has put up an impressive 10.8 points per game this season, significantly more than his 6.2 points per game last season.
Compared to last year's 0.8 mark, Dario Saric's three-pointers made have spiked this year to 1.7 per game.
Dario Saric has tallied an impressive 21.4 minutes per game this year, significantly higher than his 13.6 minutes per game last year.
The Kings have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games in their home city, which ought to raise possessions for the Warriors.
The Golden State Warriors check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Dario Saric has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 0.1 more than he's committed over the course of the year at home.
The Warriors rank as the 5th-least efficient shooting team in the league with the home court advantage this year.
This year when they are on their home court, opposing squads have averaged 43.8 buckets per game (6th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Kings, resulting in a positive matchup.
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team has attempted a monstrous 27.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games (4th-most in the NBA).
Dario Saric will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium generally decreases player production for all stats.

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