Daniel Gafford Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2023

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Washington Wizards

Rebounds

Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 4, 2023

Updated Mar 4, 2023 10:11 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-140/+114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has put up 2.2 offensive rebounds per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this metric: 94th percentile.
The Washington Wizards have played at the 10th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
While on the road, the Raptors have given up the 6th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.4) in the league to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Daniel Gafford will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city usually improves stat production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Daniel Gafford has been called for 2.3 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, ranking in the 75th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
The Raptors have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should decrease possessions for the Wizards.
The Washington Wizards check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

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