Damian Lillard Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 2:04 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has compiled 4.3 rebounds per game this year, putting him among the best players in the league in this category: 75th percentile.
Among all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard registers in the 94th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 34.7 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year.
The most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.

Favors Under

The Bucks will likely see a decline in plays in this game from competing against the most lethargic pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Nuggets).
The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league as the away team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games when they are on the road, opposing teams have come down with 10.5 offensive boards per game (10th-highest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets (lengthening possessions that can result in more opportunities for offense).
Damian Lillard will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium generally worsens stat production for all stats.

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