Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 4/27/2025

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers · Apr 27, 2025

Updated Apr 28, 2025 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+100/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard slots into the 96th percentile, averaging a whopping 24.4 points per game this year.
Damian Lillard has attempted 9.0 shots from downtown per game this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile out of all players in the league.
Damian Lillard has averaged 36.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 97th percentile.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
The 8th-most up-tempo tempo home offense in the league this year has been the Milwaukee Bucks.

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's averaged in all games this year.
This year, the other team's starting PGs have tallied 4.6 3-point attempts per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Pacers, identifying this as a challenging matchup.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Bucks grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.3 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 20 games, opposing starting PGs have attempted 3.5 free throws per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Indiana Pacers, struggling to get to the foul line.

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