Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 11/23/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Charlotte Hornets · Nov 23, 2024

Updated Nov 24, 2024 3:05 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard slots into the 97th percentile for 3-point attempts, posting 8.9 per game this year.
Damian Lillard has tallied 35.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 94th percentile.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
Damian Lillard should get a boost in output in all facets of the game due to possessing the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

In comparison to last season's 36.0% rate, Damian Lillard's 3-point efficiency has tailed off this season to 26.4%.
This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled 11.3 field goal attempts per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Charlotte Hornets, resulting in a hard matchup.
The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the 9th-most lethargic pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Charlotte Hornets).
The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Hornets is a tough one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PGs have attempted a lowly 2.9 foul shots per game this year (3rd-least in the league).

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