Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 4/26/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 26, 2024

Updated Apr 26, 2024 9:40 PM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Damian Lillard rates in the 96th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 35.2 minutes per game while playing away from home this year.
The Bucks rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Milwaukee Bucks will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from facing the fastest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year (the Indiana Pacers).

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has attempted a lowly 8.6 shots from downtown per game this year, significantly lower than his 11.3 mark last year.
The matchup vs. the Indiana Pacers is a hard one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; opposing starting PGs have totaled the least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (4.6).
The Bucks have played at the 9th-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 10 games.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks rank 2ndworst in in the NBA while playing on the road with just 8.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Damian Lillard has successfully made a measly 6.5 free throws per game this season, significantly lower than his 8.8 rate last season.

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