Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 4/23/2024

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers · Apr 23, 2024

Updated Apr 23, 2024 8:34 PM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 7.1 rate, Damian Lillard's off the mark three-point shots have fallen this year to 5.5 per game.
Damian Lillard has been on the court for 35.4 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 96th percentile.
The Bucks check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Indiana Pacers have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Bucks.
Damian Lillard has successfully made 7.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's sunk overall this year.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Pacers is a hard one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; opposing starting PGs have averaged the least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.6).
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 4th-slowest tempo in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home.
The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 3.5 free throws per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Pacers, struggling to draw fouls.