Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns · Mar 17, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard lands in the 94th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 34.8 minutes per game while on his home court this year.
When it comes to offense, the Milwaukee Bucks's fantastic 120.4 points per game settles in as the 4th-best in the league this year.
The Bucks are expected to see a spike in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 7th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Phoenix Suns).
Damian Lillard ought to see a spike in production in all facets of the game considering enjoying the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has attempted a mere 8.6 3-point shots per game this year, quite a bit less than his 11.3 mark last year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting PGs have scored 12.2 points per game (lowest in the league) against the Suns, resulting in a challenging matchup for offensive efficiency.
The Bucks have played at the 10th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court.
The Bucks rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Damian Lillard has made a measly 6.6 foul shots per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 8.8 rate last season.

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