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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 3/6/2024

Golden State Warriors vs Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-137/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Damian Lillard comes in at the 96th percentile for playing time, putting up a massive 35.0 minutes per game this year.

In regard to offense, the Milwaukee Bucks's superb 120.0 points per game as the away team places strongest in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The matchup vs. the Golden State Warriors is a positive one for three-pointers; opposing starting PGs have shot for the 25th-highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (38.4%).

The 5th-fastest pace away offense in the league over the last 20 games has been the Bucks.

The Golden State Warriors have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Bucks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Relative to last year's 32.2 rate, Damian Lillard's points per game have tailed off this year to 24.5.

In comparison to last season's 11.3 mark, Damian Lillard's 3-point attempts have regressed this season to 8.5 per game.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA when playing away from home with just 8.9 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Over the last 15 games, opposing squads have captured 11.5 offensive rebounds per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Golden State Warriors (continuing possessions that can spark further opportunities for offense).

Damian Lillard has attempted a lowly 7.4 free throws per game this season, significantly lower than his 9.6 rate last season.

More Damian Lillard Player Props

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