Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 1/4/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Milwaukee Bucks · Jan 4, 2024

Updated Jan 5, 2024 12:45 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-169/+123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has played 34.5 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA away from home this year.
This year, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 50.2% on field goals (30th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Spurs, creating a positive matchup.
The most up-tempo pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Spurs have played at the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to more possessions for the Bucks.

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has logged just 25.4 points per game this year, significantly less than his 32.2 points per game last year.
In contrast to last year's 11.3 mark, Damian Lillard's 3-point attempts have been reduced this year to 8.7 per game.
The Bucks rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Spurs have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (14.4) in the league to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Damian Lillard has attempted a lowly 8.2 free throws per game this year, quite a bit less than his 9.6 rate last year.

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