Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:14 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has sunk 8.6 field goals per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.3 more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season when playing at home.
Damian Lillard has averaged 34.8 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league.
In comparison to last year's 0.1 rate, Damian Lillard's technical fouls have tailed off this year to 0.0 per game.
The Bucks check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA when playing on the road this year.
The 2nd-quickest pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Bucks.

Favors Under

This year when they are on the road, the opposition's starting PGs have registered 13.3 points per game (15th-lowest in the league) against the Bulls, designating this as a challenging matchup for offensive output.
The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from facing the least up-tempo pace home team in the league this year (the Chicago Bulls).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks grade out 5thworst in in the league on the road with just 9.4 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Without the home court advantage, the Bulls have allowed the 10th-most offensive boards per game (11.5) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).
In contrast to last year's 8.8 rate, Damian Lillard's foul shots drained have dropped this year to 7.9 per game.

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