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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 11/28/2023

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Among all players in the league, Damian Lillard ranks in the 83rd percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 32.2 minutes per game away from home this year.

Damian Lillard has been called for a mere 0.0 technical fouls per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 0.1 technicals per game last season.

When it comes to shooting, the Bucks's outstanding 122.1 points per game away from home settles in as the 2nd-strongest in the league this year.

The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Heat have allowed the 6th-least offensive boards per game (9.7) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Compared to last season's 32.2 rate, Damian Lillard's points per game have declined this season to 25.6.

Compared to last season's 11.3 clip, Damian Lillard's shots from behind the three-point arc have been reduced this season to 8.7 per game.

Since the start of last season when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have scored 14.7 points per game (15th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat, identifying this as a tough matchup for offensive productivity.

The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Bucks.

Offensive rebounds save possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Bucks rank 4thworst in in the league without the home court advantage with just 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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