Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 11/20/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 20, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 2:12 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has been on the court for 31.0 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The Bucks check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA while at home since the start of last season.
This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 20.6 points per game (23rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Wizards, identifying this as a favorable matchup for offensive productivity.
The 5th-most up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from facing the 2nd-most up-tempo pace team in the league this year (the Wizards).

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has compiled a mere 24.8 points per game this season, quite a bit less than his 32.2 points per game last season.
Damian Lillard has attempted just 8.9 threes per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 11.3 rate last season.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks rank 2ndworst in in the NBA as the road team with just 7.8 offensive boards per game this year.
This year, their opposition has brought down 13.3 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Wizards (preserving possessions that can result in added chances for offense).
Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.9 foul shots per game (13th-fewest in the league) vs. the Wizards, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.