Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 1/15/2023

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks · Jan 15, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 10:41 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has scored 33.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.3 more than he's scored over the course of the season.
Damian Lillard has converted an impressive 6.9 free throws per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 5.5 rate last season.
Damian Lillard has been on the court for 34.3 minutes per game while on his home court this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The Portland Trail Blazers rank as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year while at home.
While playing on the road, the Mavericks have allowed the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the NBA to the other team this year (which can also lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has tallied 0.1 technical fouls per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone when it comes to technicals.
The matchup vs. the Mavericks may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; opposing clubs have attempted a measly 24.5 foul shots per game this year (9th-least in the league).
The matchup against the Mavericks is a tough one for scoring; away from home, opposing squads have compiled the 5th-lowest field goal rate in the league this year (49.6%).
The Portland Trail Blazers rank as the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the league this year in terms of field goal attempts.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year.