Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Made 3 Point Shots

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 12:07 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Damian Lillard ranks in the 83rd percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 32.2 minutes per game away from home this year.
Damian Lillard has been called for a mere 0.0 technical fouls per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 0.1 technicals per game last season.
With respect to shots from downtown, the Milwaukee Bucks's excellent 39.0% rate of converted threes ranks 3rd-highest in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. Miami is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Miami Heat have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PGs have put up the 22nd-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (36.6%).
The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 11.3 clip, Damian Lillard's shots from behind the three-point arc have been reduced this season to 8.7 per game.
The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Bucks.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Bucks rank 4thworst in in the league without the home court advantage with just 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Damian Lillard will likely suffer a drop-off in effectiveness in all stat categories on account of playing away from hom in this contest.

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