Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 11/17/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Made 3 Point Shots

Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 17, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 7:15 PM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Damian Lillard lands in the 98th percentile for playing time, averaging a monstrous 35.6 minutes per game away from home since the start of last season.
Relative to last year's 1.9 clip, Damian Lillard's personal fouls per game have fallen this year to 1.1.
When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Milwaukee Bucks's stellar 13.8 successful threes per game places 7th-most in the league this year.
The 7th-speediest pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Bucks will likely see an increase in plays today from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo away team in the league over the last 5 games (the Charlotte Hornets).

Favors Under

Compared to last year's 11.3 clip, Damian Lillard's 3-point attempts have diminished this year to 8.6 per game.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 3.0 3-point attempts per game (14th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Charlotte Hornets, creating a tough matchup.
The Bucks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Damian Lillard will likely suffer a reduction in effectiveness across the board due to playing on the visting team in this matchup.