Damian Lillard Assists - Player Prop Bet 11/22/2023

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Assists

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 22, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 12:54 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has been on the court for 31.2 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 78th percentile.
Damian Lillard has tallied 1.2 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the least lowest-fouling players in the NBA (24th percentile).
The 4th-fastest pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.
This year, opposing squads have captured 9.4 offensive boards per game (7th-lowest in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics (reducing possessions that could otherwise bring about more opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has compiled a measly 6.3 assists per game this season, quite a bit lower than his 7.3 assists per game last season.
The Boston Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Bucks.
The Bucks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Damian Lillard will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium usually lowers player performance across the board.

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