Collin Sexton Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Collin Sexton

NBA · Player Props

Collin Sexton

G · Utah Jazz

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:14 AM EST

Analysis

Collin Sexton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are on their home court, the other team has averaged 43.9% on field goals (2nd-weakest in the NBA) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, labeling this as a difficult matchup.
The Thunder have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should raise possessions for the Jazz.
The Utah Jazz have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 13.6 clip, Collin Sexton's points per game have decreased this year to 10.2.
Collin Sexton has converted a measly 36.3% of his shot attempts from the field this year, a significant dropoff from his 45.6 rate last year.
Relative to last season's 0.0 rate, Collin Sexton's technical fouls have jumped this season to 0.1 per game.
The Utah Jazz rank as the lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Utah Jazz have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

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