Christian Braun Points - Player Prop Bet 11/17/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Christian Braun

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets · Nov 17, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 8:10 PM EST

Analysis

Christian Braun Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Christian Braun has put up 16.2 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the league by this metric: 78th percentile.
Among all players in the league, Christian Braun comes in at the 93rd percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 35.6 minutes per game this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which should lead to increased plays for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Christian Braun has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA (78th percentile).
The Nuggets check in as the least aggressive offense in the league as the road team this year with respect to shot attempts from downtown.
The matchup against Memphis is a difficult one; when the Grizzlies are on their home court, they have given up the least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SGs this year (9.9).
Christian Braun will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually reduces player production in all stat categories.